4-Down Territory: Blue Blood Matchups for a Playoff in Search of Drama

Through 10 years of a 4-team playoff, just 30% of the games were 1-score games decided in the 4th quarter. Through eight games in the new 12-team playoff just 1 of the 8 games has given fans late-game drama. The proponents of expanding the playoff would sure like to see some more drama. We'll see how it all unfolds.

The Orange Bowl: Penn State (13-2) vs Notre Dame (13-1) Thursday 1/9 7:30 ESPN.

Storyline: The stars have aligned for Penn State this postseason. Michigan upset Ohio State sending PSU to the Big Ten Title game. The loss to Oregon bounced PSU to the 6th-seed where they got a home game against ACC Runner-up SMU followed by a Fiesta Bowl match-up with Boise State, a team that has not beaten a Power-4/Power-5 team since 2019. Now Penn State gets a Notre Dame team that has lost its best corner, its best d-lineman and was forced to play their quarter-final game a full two days later than Penn State after the attack on Bourbon Street in New Orleans. For Notre Dame they've worked through a slew of injuries and an army of doubters who wrote them off after a week 2 upset against North Illinois. They've had a laser focus that has given them 12 straight wins including a dominant playoff win over Indiana and against SEC Champion Georgia.

For a in-depth look at the intensity of the Penn State-Notre Dame rivalry click here. And for a video scouting report of the Fighting Irish from the show Nittany Game Week click here.

First Down: When Penn State has the Ball: All-everything PSU tight end Tyler Warren is quite simply the biggest reason PSU is here. Without him there would likely be another loss or two (think USC Game). But in the playoffs, he’s been less of an all-around threat (10 catches 96 yards 2 TDs, 1 carry for 4 yards and 0/1 passing). His longest playoff play is just 17 yards. Given all the ways Warren was utilized this year, is fatigue a factor? Probably not, so look for PSU to do more creative things with him. They will need some 20+ yard plays from him. Notre Dame has a physical defense that will matchup their CBs against your WRs and come after you aggressively upfront. How they match up with Warren will be a key to the game. RB Nick Singleton as a receiver is also an important match-up. But the Notre Dame blitzes may force PSU to keep Singleton or Warren or both in to pick up blitzes. When you play a blitzing team, the balance of power rests in who becomes the aggressor. An offense with a running QB, breakaway running backs or an offense that can take risks and shots down the field can use the aggression of a blitzing defense against them. In the playoffs, the PSU offense has leaned on the run game. Both SMU and Boise State blitzed Drew Allar effectively racking up 7 sacks and getting a lot of pressure. That helped limit Allar to a combined 26 for 47 for 298 yards in the two games. But he avoided the big INTs that cost them against Oregon. In this game interceptions will matter. The ND safeties Xavier Watts and Adon Shuler are ball hawks. They’ve combined for 9 of their team's 18 INTs and their defense leads the nation in turnovers (31), which was critical in their win over Georgia. With some injuries this year at corner, Notre Dame’s CBs became something Georga tested. They held up well. Penn State also tested Boise State’s CBs and had trouble getting by them on the outside. They will need some success out there. Establishing a run game and sticking with it may be a key to PSU's chances. Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden has said that the intelligence of his players has allowed them to run a lot of NFL concepts on defense. But a short week after the quarterfinal was delayed and the bowl travel schedule may limit the wrinkles they can throw at PSU.

Second Down: When Notre Dame has the ball: It is all about first and second downs for Notre Dame. They love to run the ball, and QB Riley Leonard is a major component of that. Neither team has those blazing / “gotta double team” type WRs. That has leant itself to a Notre Dame pass attack that has had success with play-action and drop back passing on the early downs. Through 15 games Penn State RBs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen have both nudged over 1,000 yards. And through 14 games, Notre Dame has RB Jeremiyah Love (1,076 yards/16 TDs), RB Jadarian Price (720 yards/7 TDs) and QB Riley Leonard (831 yards/15 TDs).  Riley Leonard may never be confused with Lamar Jackson, but he is a very productive runner, especially against teams like Penn State (and Georgia) that like to play man coverage as a big part of their package. Leonard had a number of timely runs to move the chains in The Sugar Bowl. And he is not a guy who is always looking to slide at the end of his runs. While Notre Dame had a rebuilt o-line to start the year, that unit is playing well. They will need that against what is the strength of the Penn State defense. PSU DE Abdul Carter is a game-time decision. If he plays, look for Notre Dame to run at him to test him, neutralize his speed (ala Oregon) and to tire him out. Penn State committed a ton of guys to the run game against Boise State and it proved effective. But that was against a run game that had one threat. Boise State had success throwing the ball but ultimately lost the game on 2 missed field goals and three INTs. Notre Dame's QB run threat changes a lot of things for a defense. When Notre Dame does throw the ball, they have a very good (not Tyler Warren good—but still very good) tight end in Mitchell Evans. Like Penn State’s running backs, they have one that is a big threat in the pass game and one that is less involved. For Notre Dame that is Jeremiyah Love, so watch to see which back is in the game as a key to the pass game. And among a solid group of WRs, Jordan Faison is an intriguing player. He moves around in alignment a lot. He uses the athleticism and field awareness that comes from being an outstanding lacrosse player. He was a top-5 scorer (22 goals & 8 assists) as a middie for the Irish’s National Championship team last spring.

And as for the kicking game, one big swing may be the field goals. Penn State has been steady behind P Ryan Barker while Notre Dame’s kicking had been an adventure for much of the year. However, Mitch Jeter is now fully healthy and has hit 5/5 in the playoffs. Notre Dame leads the country with 6 blocked kicks so it will be imperative that punt and placekick protection be solid. The aggressive punt rush may also lend itself to a potential PSU fake punt. Penn State would also be well-advised to kickoff through the end zone. Notre Dame kick returner Jayden Harrison has 4 career TD returns (3 of 98 or more yards) and burned Georgia to start the 3rd quarter.

The Cotton Bowl: Ohio State (12-2) vs Texas (13-2) Friday 1/10 7:30 ESPN:

Storyline: The Ohio State redemption tour after the upset loss to Michigan has been a furious Old-testament wrath of God type show. They raced to a 21-0 lead on their way to a 42-17 win over Tennessee and a 34-0 lead in a 41-21 win over #1 Oregon. Neither game was that close. The test is to see if that talented angry team can continue to focus and play like they have so far. As for Texas, they still seem to be a team that, despite 13 wins, is searching for that big win over a national opponent. Can they fulfill the season-long hype? A win over Ohio State would be a definitive yes.

3rd Down: When Texas has the ball: The obvious storyline is QB Quinn Ewers, his history at Ohio State and subsequent transfer back to Texas and his native Lone Star State. He has led a Texas offense that has been good all year. BUT….and this is a big but, they have faltered inside the red zone. They score points on just 81% of their trips into the Red Zone and score TDs just 64% of the time. That cost them in the Georgia game, and it could cost them against the Buckeyes. Ohio State is the best red zone defense in the country allowing points just 62% of the time and allowing TDs just 41% of the time. Those are epic numbers. It will be critical for Texas to come away with touchdowns in the red zone rather than field goals or getting stopped on downs. Penn State's offense had two first-and-goal drives and came away with zero points. Ohio State is the only team left in the playoffs that had wins in the regular season against other playoff teams (won at Penn State and against Indiana). The strength-on-strength match-up in this game is the Texas O-line versus the Ohio State D-line. Outland Trophy and Lombardi Award Winner, Kevin Banks is an All-American who leads a unit that has a combined 196 starts. But they gave up 13 sacks in the 2 games against Georgia. The Buckeyes are coming off an 8-sack performance against Oregon.  Ewers has good pocket presence, but pocket presence requires a pocket to be present in. On the back end, the Ohio State 3-safety scheme has been excellent all year. Cornerback Denzel Burke had a tough October outing at Oregon but has been rock solid the rest of the year. Attacking the other corner and the safeties in the pass game will be a focus. Texas will need to establish a run game to set up play-action passes, to run the clock and control the game pace. What has been striking in the playoffs for Ohio State has been a defensive dominance that they’ve accomplished without getting a single turnover. Turnovers have been a problem for Texas with 24 on the season. That is almost 2 per game. The key to this game for the UT offense will be eliminating turnovers, improved red zone performance and getting some runs and screens in the mix to keep OSU off-balance.

4th Down: When Ohio State has the ball: This is a really difficult offense to defend because every skill guy that touches the ball at running back, tight end and wide receiver is a threat. It all starts with WR Jeremiah Smith. If there was a playoff MVP to be named so far, he is the guy. In the 2 playoff games he has 13 catches for 290 yards and 4 TDs. But the other 2 WRs Emika Egbuka, Carnell Tate and TE Gee Scott have racked up 17 catches for another 250 yards in those two games. Throw in RB TreyVeon Henderson (the pass threat of their 2 RBs) and you have to account for everyone. In another strength versus strength match-up the Texas secondary is led by Thorpe Award Winner Jahdae Brown, but they are strong across the board. Texas is 2nd nationally in turnovers (30), 2nd in INTs (21) and 2nd in team pass efficiency defense. They get help from a pass rush that generated 44 sacks and help in coverage from active LBs like Anthony Hill. He is athletic and aggressive and is effective as a pass rusher and in coverage. Early on in both playoff games, it became evident that Ohio State was going to establish Smith to force defensive adjustments. That opens up other targets and the run game. In both playoff games the pass game success set up a run game to put games away. The same thing happened in OSU's road win at Penn State. But pass game success all boils down to the accuracy and play of OSU QB Will Howard. He has proven to be a capable run threat who can convert third downs on designed runs. If he gets loose on the scramble, he can get you 10 or 15 yards and that can be disheartening for a defense. But the speed outside has to get the ball from Howard consistently. What was the Achilles’ heel for Ohio State against Michigan was the offensive line. They have had well-documented injuries upfront. Michigan was able to create pass pressure and shut the run game down. The foundation of the Texas run defense has been their play upfront with big bulky guys inside. Teams have tried to run some no-huddle up-tempo offense to tire those bulky guys out as the game goes on. So don’t be surprised if OSU takes that approach early on. The key for the Texas defense will be the same keys that have made them a great defense all year. They’ll have to tackle well in the open field, neutralize the OSU run game and get a couple of turnovers.