4-Down Territory: Quarterfinal "Fiesta" Kicks Off the New Year
In November 1986 the Sunkist Fiesta Bowl kicked up its payout, moved the game to Friday Night January 2, 1987 and booted the highly popular show Miami Vice off NBC. All done to showcase the game between #1 Miami and #2 Penn State in a battle of undefeated teams that was dubbed "The Game of The Century". That game changed college football history and triggered a desire for a playoff. It is fitting that Penn State and the Fiesta Bowl kick off the first-ever quarterfinal playoff round in bowl games.
First Down: The Fiesta Bowl: Penn State (12-2) vs Boise State (12-1) Tuesday 12/31 7:30 ESPN: When the pairings were announced, many Penn State fans assumed an easy path at home against SMU and in the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State on their way to an Orange Bowl match-up against Georgia or Notre Dame. Versus SMU, Penn State’s linebackers came up with their best day of the year with two pick-sixes to spot Penn State a 14-0 lead. The play for PSU up front and by the linebackers will be critical. There may be Ashton Jeanty doubters because they see Jeanty racking up yards against the Mountain West teams, take a long look at his performance against Oregon. This guy can play against anyone. One of the “X-factors” in defending Jeanty is over-playing the run. The Broncos’ o-line has had injury problems and has started at least 7 different combinations this year. That has invited teams to load up and try to take the run game away. The Broncos have a solid play-action pass package utilizing some hard play-fakes and seven and even eight-man protection schemes. The other “X-factor” in defending Jeanty may be Boise State adding some plays between their last game and this game to get Jeanty the ball out in open space. Jeanty had just 20 catches this year, but last year he racked up 43 catches at a gaudy clip of 13.2 yards per catch. Don’t be surprised if there aren’t a few more passes to him in the gameplan. And if the Broncos do need to throw it a ton, PSU’s pass rushers should get their hands up. Broncos QB Maddux Madsen has been sacked just 10 times this year, but at 5-10, his lower launch point means chances for the D-line to get batted balls at the line if they can’t get to him. But make no mistake, stopping Jeanty is job #1. To get that done the upfront guys for Penn State will have to keep the double teams from coming off and getting to the linebackers. If Jeanty can get North and South in the run game and get into the secondary, look out. His speed and his ability to break tackles and gain yards after contact will be a problem for PSU. This is a guy who is gaining roughly 70% of his yards after contact. As for Penn State’s offense, they were not as consistent against SMU as they’d been. The Broncos like to play with 5 defensive backs and the most active is the Nickel/Outside LB type player Seyi Oladipo. He is an effective blitzer with 6.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss on the season. Much like SMU, this is a defense built on speed and pass rush. They’ve racked up 51 sacks this year and have a +7 turnover margin. The pass rush is sparked not just by the blitz but also by a bookend pair of defensive ends that have 10 and 8.5 sacks respectively. That same type of approach by SMU held PSU to 24 points and 325 yards on offense. For those assuming that a Fiesta Bowl win is a given, remember Boise State has racked up a 3-0 Fiesta Bowl record by upsetting Arizona, TCU and Oklahoma.
Historical Note: #2 Penn State defeated #1 Miami 14-10 on Friday January 2, 1987, for the National Championship. It drew a 25.0 TV rating, still the highest-rated College Football broadcast of all time. It was watched by 75 million people worldwide.
Ticket Watch: As of Tuesday morning 12/31, you could get a ticket into the Fiesta Bowl for $40.
Second Down: The Peach Bowl: Texas (12-2) vs Arizona State (11-2) Wednesday 1/1 1:00 ESPN: The Longhorns were expected to be here. Arizona State? Not so much. The Sun Devils were consistently picked at or near the bottom of the pack for the Big 12 this year. AND it would be safe to say that on the evening of 10/19 as the Sun Devils were flying home from a 24-14 loss to Cincinnati with a 5-2 record and a second Big 12 loss, no one was talking playoffs for ASU. This is a team that has made a remarkable recovery from NCAA sanctions for recruiting violations that included a self-imposed bowl ban last year. Coach Kenny Dillingham turned the momentum around after that loss to Cincinnati and went on a 6-game run that included wins over ranked teams Kansas State, BYU and Iowa State (all of whom have already won their bowl games). Like Boise State with Ashton Jeanty, it is easy to assume that the ASU offense is all about Cam Skattebo (1568 yards and 19 TDs) running the ball. But Skattebo also has caught 37 passes for 506 yards. WR Jordyn Tyson has 1,100 yards on 75 catches and the Sun Devils have put up almost 3,000 yards through the air behind the efficient play of Sam Leavitt. He has thrown for 17 TDs and just 1 INT in the current 6-game winning streak. However, this will be the most athletic defense ASU has seen all year. Texas thrives on limiting big plays and presenting a lot of blitz possibilities. They get a lot of sacks and tackles for loss from blitzing LBs and DBs and they can do that because the secondary players behind them are sure tacklers—allowing just one play of over 50 yards all year (53 yards). For the year the Longhorns have racked up 42 sacks and 103 tackles for loss and have collected 29 turnovers (20 INTs and 9 fumbles). All of those are Top-10 numbers nationally as are the 13.7 points per game allowed and 261 yards allowed. ASU QB Sam Leavitt will have to keep protecting the ball against that unit. Keep an eye on Texas LB #0 Anthony Hill who has an impressive stat line that accurately reflects his play (99 tackles, 16 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks, 1 INT and 4 forced fumbles). When Texas is on offense, the team goes as QB Quinn Ewers goes. Lately that has been a bit of a mixed bag. The pressure points have been struggles in the red zone with just an 81 % scoring rate in the Red Zone (just 66% TDs), sacks (30 allowed) and turnovers as Ewers has thrown 10 on the year. That last number plays into the hands of ASUs defense which has thrived on turnovers themselves with 15 INTs and 7 fumble recoveries. Against a defense that has three players in the secondary among their top 4 tacklers, look for Texas to get their running game going behind Quintrevion Wisner who has emerged the last half of the season with big games against Kentucky (158 yards), Texas A&M (186 yards) and Clemson (110 yards).
Ticket Watch: As of Tuesday morning 12/31, the cheapest ticket into the Peach Bowl was $26.
Third Down: The Rose Bowl: Oregon (13-0) vs Ohio State (11-2) 1/1 5:00 ESPN: This is a rematch of the college football game of the year; a narrow 32-31 Oregon win on October 12th in Autzen Stadium. Having been at that game, the home field and the intense crowd noise were definitely an advantage for the Ducks. While not a home game, Ducks’ fans have had since 12/8 to grab flights, tickets and make plans to be in Pasadena, while OSU fans had to wait until they beat Tennessee on 12/21 to make their plans. The playoff structure and the committee got this match-up wrong. No one can accurately dispute that. Even as a biased PSU alum, it is hard to argue that OSU should not have been seeded ahead of PSU given that both teams had 2 losses and given that OSU beat PSU in Happy Valley. But this is the game we’re left with and this side of the bracket for Oregon includes a matchup with OSU (arguably the most talented team). The winner of this game could be facing Texas in Arlington, TX. But we have this game so let’s get to it. The Oregon offense was far and away the best team that the stout OSU defense faced. The speed at WR and the ability to mix the run and the pass gave the Buckeyes problems. Oregon scored 32 points but also missed a field goal and a red zone 4th down conversion or they could have put up 42 points against one of the nation’s top 5 defenses. Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel has career wins the past two years against #3 Texas, #3 Ohio State and #3 Penn State. His ability to scramble and make throws is a big problem for opposing defenses. The Buckeyes have been stingy, and nowhere have they been better than in the red zone. Teams are scoring just 59% of the time in the red zone and get into the end zone just 38% of the time—both incredible numbers. Those numbers include 2 stops inside the 5 against Penn State and a stop against Oregon. They have allowed just 12 red zone TDs all year (2 against Oregon) and held Penn State without an offensive touchdown. In the first match-up QB Dillon Gabriel and the Oregon receivers tested the OSU corners and had success getting behind them. That puts pressure on the OSU pass rush and may force OSU to help those CBs. That opens room for an underrated Oregon run game. In the Big Ten title game, Oregon started out establishing the run game and then exploited the Penn State secondary the rest of the game. WR Tez Johnson looks like he’s playing with the kind of speed and moves that you only see on video games or in the movie the Matrix. But they have 3 top-line WRs that can get behind your defense. Oregon will move the ball, but for the Buckeye defense they will have to force them into the kind of physical hand-to-had battles that come in the red zone. When Ohio State has the ball, they too have great speed on the outside. And, like Oregon, they have three dangerous WRs headlined by freshman Jeremiah Smith. But Emeka Egbuka is a projected first-round pick and Carnell Tate has done significant damage. They pack a potent one-two punch with running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreyVeon Henderson. Where this season has pivoted has been in the play of an offensive line that has been hard-hit by injuries and the play of QB Will Howard who seemed out of sorts after a hit to the head in the loss to Michigan. Those issues were put to rest early and often against the toughest draw in the first round as OSU raced to a big lead and rout of Tennessee. Oregon will be healthy on defense, and will be helped by the pass rush presence of DE Jordan Burch who missed the OSU game in October. Getting pressure on Will Howard and disrupting the pass game will be vital for the Ducks’ chances.
Ticket Watch: As of Tuesday morning 12/31, the cheapest ticket for the Rose Bowl was $135.
Fourth Down: The Sugar Bowl: Georgia (11-2) vs Notre Dame (12-1) 1/1 8:45 ESPN: Georgia won the SEC but lost QB Carson Beck and narrowly escaped with the win. All eyes will be on Sophomore QB Gunner Stockton who has a great QB name and will be making his first career start. Having said that, he played the whole second half against Texas in the SEC Title game win. His numbers were not great (12 of 16 for 71 yards and 1 INT), but he’s now had over 3 weeks to prepare as the starter and work with the rest of the #1 offense in practice. Most years at Georgia a new QB has had the luxury of a dominant run game. That is not the case this year as the Dawgs have racked up just under 130 yards per game rushing. The loss of big-time Notre Dame DT Rylie Mills will be a factor in the run game but look for Notre Dame’s defense to challenge Georgia to beat them throwing the ball. And they’ll be confident doing that with one of the best secondaries in all of college football. That should be an advantage for Notre Dame against the UGA receiving corps. Notre Dame, in a theme among many of these playoff teams, has a defense that gets lots of turnovers. Not only do they have 18 INTs on the year, but they’ve also knocked down another 53 passes. The CB tandem of Leonard Moore and Christian Gray has forced teams to throw inside where safeties Xavier Watts and Adon Shuler have combined for 9 INTs. That may make for a Georgia team that will make this a game about defense and special teams, especially since Notre Dame’s field goal kicking is hitting at less than 50% (which makes them more likely to play a four-down offense in the red zone). As for the ND offense, they love to run the ball. They have a 1,000+ yard rusher in Jeremiyah Love and two 600+ yard rushers including QB Riley Leonard with 751 yards on the ground and 15 TDs. Georgia likes to blitz and create negative plays, things that were critical in their two wins over Texas. In those wins the Bulldogs combined to get 13 sacks and held Texas to 60 combined rushing yards. But, and this is a big qualifier, Texas did not have the run threat at QB that Riley Leonard poses. That really limits some of the things you can do with your coverages. By way of reference Alabama QB Jalen Milroe had 117 rushing yards in their win over Georgia--a game both teams are likely studying. The play in the pass game and in the QB run game by Riley Leonard may be the point that could swing the game to Notre Dame. If he is forced into making a big mistake or two, it could be what swings the game that could come down to a kick to an opportunistic UGA team. A team that has—by the way—hit over 90% of their field goals.
Ticket Watch: As of Tuesday morning 12/31, you could get a ticket to The Sugar Bowl for $39.
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