4-Down Territory: Notre Dame & Ohio State in a Winner-Take-All Prize Fight

Here we are just a day away from the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff Title Game. One team started the season as a heavy favorite, only to be seemingly de-railed by a late season upset to an unranked Michigan team. Amid the post-game chaos of a flag-planting fight that seemed to leave the Buckeyes as a team adrift the seeds of this run were born. Redemption is now at hand after a playoff run that included three double-digit wins over AP Poll #7 Tennessee, #1 Oregon and #4 Texas. Notre Dame started the season being seen as a playoff contender but not really a National Title contender. A week two loss at home to Northern Illinois seemed to destroy the season. But rather than panic, the Fighting Irish won thirteen straight wins. Six wins were against ranked teams including a playoff run with wins over AP Poll #9 Indiana, #2 Georgia and #5 Penn State.

First Down: History Notre Dame/ Ohio State: Just the team names conjure up the ghosts of legends long passed, and legends still living. The ghosts haunt the midwestern cities and towns where these fans lived alongside each other. In Ohio Catholic High Schools from places like Cardinal Mooney or Ursuline in Youngstown, to St Ignatius or St Edward in Cleveland to Moeller or St X in Cincinnati, to St Vincent/St Mary’s in Akron to Chaminade-Julienne in Dayton these two teams fought year in and year out for the best talent in Ohio. In the halls of those schools hang pictures of high school players who'd gone on to play college football. Many of those pictures feature youthful college smiles dressed in the Blue and Gold of Notre Dame or the Scarlet and Gray of OSU. The pictures have faded with time, much like the flickering images in the aging minds of fans who can still recall days gone by.

And yet, given their relative midwestern proximity they’ve played just 8 times. Notre Dame’s main Midwest/Big Ten matchups have been Purdue (88 games), Michigan State (79 times), Michigan (44 times). The Irish have even played Penn State 20 times over the years including this year’s semifinal game in the Orange Bowl.

There remains a lingering resentment of Notre Dame, a team that remains outside a conference. Some say it is arrogance, arrogance born by long ago successes, not current relevancy. Across the decades of the 1990s and 2000s the advantage of Notre Dame being on TV each week eroded.

The Big Ten expanded east with Penn State. The TV contracts expanded. Big Ten games were even more ubiquitous than Notre Dame games and it was reflected in the recruiting. Kids across the Midwest and also nationally talked about playing in the Big Ten. The SEC ascended too. Suddenly Notre Dame had fallen back in the pack.

In the last thirty years the Irish had their moments. They made the BCS National Championship game in 2012, only to be routed by Alabama. They made the college football playoffs in two other years, both times being dispatched with relative ease. But heading into this season the Irish had not won a major bowl since January 1994. They went 8-15 in bowls in that stretch, including a 9-game bowl losing streak and an 0-10 record in major bowls.

By comparison in that same stretch, Ohio State won two national titles, played in the BCS or Playoff title game three other times, made the playoffs 5 times and racked up 14 major Bowl wins. And in a twist of irony, Ohio State passed on a self-imposed bowl ban in 2011 when facing NCAA sanctions. That resulted in a 2012 bowl ban that prevented the 12-0 undefeated Buckeyes to play undefeated Notre Dame in 2012 for the National Title.

In the first year of the 4-team playoff Ohio State eked in as the 4th-seed and won it all. Now ten years later, the Buckeyes get in as an 8th-seed in the first year of the 12-team playoff after a shocking home loss to a hated rival. And here we are……The Buckeyes look to continue a dominant playoff run and continue a Big Ten hold on midwestern dominance. A product of the Buckeye state and a Buckeye player from Huber Heights HS in Wayne, Ohio Marcus Freeman is at the helm of the Fighting Irish. He’s shattered that major bowl losing streak and stands to “Wake up The Echoes” in a return to glory deserving of its place among the great teams of Notre Dame past……

2nd down: Recent History/3 Common 2024 Foes: In bowl games, coaches find it helpful to look at tape against common foes. It provides a useful measuring stick when facing a team you haven’t played. Before the Penn State game, Notre Dame and PSU showed very similar performances against Purdue and USC. Ohio State and Notre Dame have both played Purdue, Indiana and Penn State. The numbers are fairly similar. Notre Dame’s offensive numbers were better in those games than Ohio State’s—even managing a slight edge in throwing the ball in those games. On the defensive side Ohio State had an edge in those games. The team’s even managed to both post a +1 total turnover margin in those three games. Two areas where there were some differences were in sacks allowed (Notre Dame 10 and Ohio State 5), third down conversions on offense (59.5% for ND and 41.7% for OSU) and 4th down offense with Ohio State converting 5 of 7 and Notre Dame not having gone for any 4th downs.

3rd down: When OSU has the ball:  OSU got off to the races early in the 1st two games. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has done well on playoff game opening drives and with his opening script of plays. One way to judge a coordinator’s script is by the number of third downs on those drives. On the first three drives against Tennessee, they scored 3 TDs on 19 total plays and facing just 2 third downs (converted both). That reflects a great script. Against Oregon on their first 4 drives, they scored 17 points on 22 plays and faced 4 third downs converting 2 of 4. But against Texas, they managed just 7 points on their opening three drives running 24 plays, facing 4 third downs. But careless penalties set them up on two very-long third downs which they failed to convert. The script was still good, the penalties set them back.

That means Notre Dame will need to be ready to see and defend a carefully laid out opening script. Early on a defense must make sure they don’t get caught out of position and make them earn everything. The comeback win over Penn State suggests that is possible.

The OSU offense flows through WR #4 Jeremiah Smith in many ways. He is the big-time player who can make you look silly. Texas did a great job limiting him in a variety of ways and changed their looks. Notre Dame will have 10 days to conjure up ways to slow him. Against Penn State, Notre Dame could match-up 1 on 1 versus the outside WRs and turned it into a 9 on 9 football game. They did not allow a PSU WR to make a single catch. The OSU WR corps is talented and has three guys who make life difficult They get TreyVeon Henderson involved in the pass game too (see the 75-yard screen pass to re-take the lead against Texas before the half). But ultimately Ohio State wants to run the ball. They have a two-back attack and a run threat from QB Will Howard. He’s not an electric runner but he can be a closer as PSU found out on two 3rd-down plays that killed the clock against PSU. Key to this game will be limiting big plays and making OSU play a patient game. That seems to frustrate them. To do that tackling well will be vital.

It comes down to whether Notre Dame can force Ohio State to beat them playing the patient game and put the pressure on an Ohio State offensive line that has been rebuilt. They still lack consistency at times. If they can slow OSU, get some pressure on them and force OSU into some turnovers they’ll give themselves a chance. After all, the Irish defense leads the country in creating turnovers,

4th down: When Notre Dame has the ball: Red Zone, Red Zone, Red zone. This was where the Ohio State games against Penn State, Nebraska and Texas were decided. On two possessions PSU had first and goal and came away with no points. Texas was on the doorstep of tying the game and on 4th and goal Jack Sawyer won the game with a sack, strip and scoop and score to put the game away.

The Irish may not have the big-name talent on offense, but they’re scoring more points per game than OSU. They create points off turnovers and do it better than anyone else. They run the ball with a deep backfield and timely rushing yards from their QB. RB Jeremiyah Love has had a couple extra days to get healthy. Between Love, RB Jadarian Price and QB Riley Leonard they have three players with over 700 yards rushing, and they’ve accounted for 40 TDs. And the RB room also gets into then pass game. Against Penn State they got 3rd RB Aneyas Williams 1 on 1 with a linebacker and got big plays.

The Ohio State scheme is a three-safety scheme. Sony Styles, Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom have size, speed and are sure tacklers. Their experience gives them the chance to disguise and change coverages. If they can make Riley Leonard hold the ball the OSU pass rush will look to exploit a Notre Dame line that has also been hit by the injury bug. The pressure will be on the Notre Dame tackles to stop the edge rush of unit that racked up 8 sacks against Oregon. The Notre Dame WRs may lack the flash of OSU but they beat PSU for big plays. And the CB spot opposite OSU’s Denzel Burke has been where people have attacked them, and that spot has proven to be prone to holding and interference penalties.

5th down: Kicking Game: Notre Dame has clearly solved the field goal issues that plagued them earlier this year. Kicker Mitch Jeter hit just 6 of12 field goals heading into the playoffs. Now that he has gotten healthy, he’s hit 7/8 in the playoffs including the game winner in the Orange Bowl. Notre Dame has a dangerous kickoff return unit but look for OSU to kick it into the end zone and force touchbacks. Keep an eye on the kick block units for Notre Dame. They lead the country with 6 blocked kicks (3 punts, 3 field goals). If they over commit to the block, it does leave them vulnerable to fake kicks.